You and your friends are picking a new group chat app. Two options look similar. One person tries App A first, posts a fun sticker pack, and a couple of others join. Suddenly, homework files, inside jokes, and your weekend plans all live there. App B never really gets a chance. It feels like a tiny nudge decided everything. Economist W. Brian Arthur says that is precisely how many technologies spread in the real world. Little, almost random events can snowball into significant outcomes. The more people adopt one option, the more it improves and the more attractive it becomes—the classic “success breeds success.” 

According to Arthur, this “increasing returns” loop means that early moves matter significantly. If one choice gains a slight head start, it can attract more users, draw more fixes and features, and ultimately become the standard. Another day, a different lucky break could have crowned a different winner. Think of familiar stories like popular keyboard layouts or formats that became defaults because they caught on first, not because they were perfect. The paper even illustrates this with a simple model: when gains rise with each new adopter, the process can tipt, much like a random walk that hits a wall and remains and then persists there. Once a technology enters that zone, both types of users continue to choose it, and its rivals fade out. 

This has consequences you can feel. First, the outcome is difficult to predict in advance. Even if you know what people like and how good each option could become, chance can still decide which one takes over. Second, the result can be hard to undo. After a winner emerges, shifting people back takes more and more push. Third, the winner is not always the best in the long run. A slower-but-better path might lose if it misses those early breaks. Arthur contrasts this with worlds of constant or diminishing returns, where sharing is the natural end state and forecasts are easier to make. In his summary, with increasing returns, you get unpredictability, inflexibility, path dependence, and possible inefficiency; with constant or diminishing returns, you usually do not. 

What should you do with this? Stay alert to early habits that can trap you. When selecting tools for study, work, or creative projects, ask: Will this choice become more effective as I use it? If so, sample more than one option before committing. Favor choices that keep doors open—ones that export, sync, or play well with others. Be cautious with hype too; expectations that “everyone will switch” can actually accelerate lock-in, even if the technology is not clearly superior. And remember, the “best” path may need extra patience and support at first. Arthur’s message is simple: small choices add up. Make them with your future self in mind.

Reference:
Arthur, W. B. (1989). Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events. The Economic Journal, 99(394), 116. https://doi.org/10.2307/2234208

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